The politicians have spoken on Ohariu-Belmont

It is clear that one of two people will win Ohariu-Belmont (my electorate) in 2011- Labour’s Charles Chauvel or United Future leader Peter Dunne, just like in 2008. But it always was clear.

While a competent MP, Gareth Hughes from the Greens will not win, and is campaigning for the party vote. Many National Party supporters prefer Peter Dunne over Katrina Shanks, so Shanks has no option but to campaign for the party vote.

So, if you are a Green supporter, you have been advised to vote for Chauvel, if you are a National supporter, Peter Dunne. Katrina Shanks, who is currently 55 on the party list, was so out of touch that she did not even realise a deal was done by National to have their supporters vote for Dunne.

The thing is, Hughes is quite happy to ask his supporters to vote for fellow list MP Chauvel, but Shanks is not so happy that her supporters are being told to vote for Dunne. She think’s Dunne is desperate. Chauvel, meanwhile says that he doesn’t particularly like such deals saying that voters don’t like being told what to do. He is saying that because he knows that the National-Dunne deal is indeed a Dunne deal and he will not be the local MP.

Chauvel said he will be running a "time for a change" campaign – apparently in April. So far we’ve heard nothing in the electorate about that,( he's too busy focusing on the important issues). However he did say I`ll be satisfied with having my voice heard on the things that matter to me”.

Those in Ohariu-Belmont want to have candidates voices heard on things that matter to them.

John Pagani writes that any voters who wanted to be represented by Mr Dunne would have supported him in 2008. Goff says Dunne is irrelevant. Chauvel calls Dunne a faceless party boss, but it is Dunne who goes to the school fairs, and sticks around to talk to people, while Chauvel just pops his head in and takes off after spinning the raffle wheel. Shanks on the other hand, pops in to a school fair and can’t remember the name of the school when she leaves.

Yet the word on the ground is that lots of people deserted Dunne because of his support of the Labour Government. Many didn’t like Dunne’s support or Labour or his position on the anti-smacking legislation and voted Shanks, who also supported it.

This time around those on the right have got no reason to vote for Shanks, and no reason not to vote against Dunne.

Finally, anyone visited http://charles2011.co.nz here?

More about → The politicians have spoken on Ohariu-Belmont

Dunne plays his hand

This has been a pretty good week so far for United Future’s Peter Dunne.

On Monday he addressed his Ohariu electorate committee with a speech warning against the extremities of Act, declaring that anyone who stands with Hone Harawira is “is someone asking to be burnt”, and referred to Labour as a cot-case and “not a viable, functioning alternative” (to the present government). He also said that parliament has been more honourable for Winston Peters’ departure at the last election.

While his views will have support from both the left and the right of politics, it is clear Dunne sees himself aligned to National in 2011 after he retains his seat.

On Tuesday Phil Goff’s response to the speech was, “I think Mr Dunne will be irrelevant at the next election, I don't think he'll be in Parliament."

Dunne has more chance of being in Parliament after the election than Goff has of being Labour’s leader during National’s second term.

Goff believes Charles Chauvel will become the MP for Ohariu after the election. Chauvel has tried to be elected by the people, Labour has stood him in several elections since 1990, but voters wanted someone else. This year Chauvel is going to run a time for a change campaign. He says “I`ll be satisfied with having my voice heard on the things that matter to me”.

Those in Ohariu want to have candidates voices heard on things that matter to them.

Chauvel has got a campaign caravan emblazoned with his website, www.charles2011.co.nz, a website that is not publicly available, but merely a diversion to his Facebook page that has grammatical and spelling mistakes. Time for some changes, indeed. Not a particularly good start.

Today Dunne put out a media release that will have support from both the left and the right. He called on John Key to assure New Zealanders at he would not allow Maori activist Titewhai Harawira to be his escort at next year's Waitangi Day celebrations due to her unruly behaviour at past hui.

Dunne has called the election for National and says voters need to decide which party should support National after the election. I still think Dunne will win his seat with an increased majority – the question is will he bring anyone else in with him.

More about →

Ohariu – why Peter Dunne will increase his majority

I have consistently said since I have moved into the Ohariu electorate that Peter Dunne will retain his seat at elections. I'm not about to change now, in fact I think he'll increase his majority in 2011.

National, as it did in 2008, will be telling its voters in Ohariu to vote for Peter Dunne instead of Katrina Shanks for the candidate vote in this year’s election. For the second time, Shanks will be concentrating on the party vote with a half-hearted attempt at campaigning for the electorate vote. Some National supporters will vote for Dunne, others won’t, but Dunne will win Ohariu in 2011 and the National vote won’t split between Dunne and Shanks in the way some are predicting.

As David Farrar says , if the National vote splits between Dunne and Shanks, Chauvel may come through the middle. Dunne voters may vote Shanks, or Shanks voters vote Dunne for the same reasons – to keep Chauvel out. What Chauvel will want is for Shanks and Dunne to almost tie, and he comes through the middle.

It won’t happen.

Many are comparing this battle to Epsom, where, John Key is happy or National voters to vote Hide to keep Act in Parliament. However the Ohariu electorate is different as Dunne is an effective constituent MP. Even some who party vote Green in Ohariu vote Dunne and may do so again in 2011 in increasing numbers. In 2008 Dunne’s vote dropped as many former Dunne voters voted for Shanks and Chauvel. Some voted Shanks because of Dunne’s support for the anti-smacking legislation, and also because they didn’t like Dunne being part of a Labour Government. Some did not like his position on the Electoral Finance Act, supporting it right up to the final vote, when he then abruptly switched sides. Those who voted Chauvel did so because of his increasingly senior role in Labour, because they got sick of Dunne,and they thought Shanks wasn't worth voting for.

This year, Dunne hasn't given Ohariu voters too much reason to be sick of him, and Shanks hasn't given voters too much reason to vote for her. Chauvel has done neither as he is too busy criticising Dunne and Shanks instead of working in the electorate and promoting Labour's plan for economic recovery.

I’m predicting that Dunne’s majority of 1200 will increase in 2011. Many of those who voted for Shanks in 2008 due to Dunne’s role in the Labour Government will return to Dunne, whereas not so many Dunne voters will vote for Shanks because she hasn’t given then much reason to – and she is now less likely to be a Dunne protest vote.

That’s why more 2008 Shanks voters will vote Dunne in 2011 compared with Dunne voters who will now vote for Shanks. The focus will not only be keeping Chauvel out; the only way to keep Chauvel out will be to retain Dunne so that Chauvel does not come up through the middle due to a split Dunne/Shanks vote.

More about →

The Chauvel story

The Charles Chauvel “airplane and kids” story everyone is talking and blogging about was news. It wasn’t very important news, but news nonetheless. And it is a story that is a lot easier to write than a story on Genesis announcing a rise in electricity prices this week, or the economic implications of a GST increase.

But had Chauvel reacted a little differently the story could have been killed. He didn’t need to talk about an ACT party blogger who initially blogged the story. (The blogger concerned is not an ACT member – but he does live in Chauvel’s electorate.)

Chauvel doesn’t owe anything to his electorate – he is a list MP. He may lose votes at the next election because of this as people will recall this story. Peter Dunne – who Chauvel is trying to unseat – is the holder of the parliamentary seat that has the lowest proportion of the electorate vote nationwide. I’m sure Peter Dunne and Katrina Shanks both think this story is great.

What the story in the media didn’t tell us was how loud the kids were. All we know is it wasn’t as loud as the plane engines. At least the kids weren’t smacked for their loudness – imagine what Chauvel would have told the media then, even if the smack was to have shut the kids up.

I trust Chauvel is not traveling on Labour's " axe the tax" bus anytime soon - he`d hate the noise of all the singing.

Chauvel was on Breakfast this morning and was accused of lying by Paul Henry. About the comments wishing the kids would shut up , Henry said

I think you said it intending him (the father) to hear it, and wanting him to do something to shut his children up.

When Chauvel denied this, Henry said he was not being honest, and that he was of the opinion that Chauvel had intended the father to hear his comments.

More about →

Free speech, gay MP's and and Beenie Man

I'd never heard of Beenie Man until this week. Beenie Man is a Jamaican singer who has been invited to the Big Day Out.He is notorious for his lyrics and other statements promoting the killing of gay men and lesbians. Labour's Charles Chauvel has called for him to be banned from entering the country, deeming him to be a threat to security or public order because his lyrics will incite hostility.

Except, Chauvel is wrong. His lyrics will not incite hostility. The Big Day Out had already advised that Beenie Man will not be performing the offending songs, therefore his lyrics will not be an issue.I suspect Chauvel was fully aware of this, but would rather incite some hostility of his own.

For Chauvel, freedom of speech is less about the offensiveness under the law than it is about his own prejudices. I much prefer Green MP Kevin Hague's approach to this distasteful musician: He correctly calls the invitation shameful and is calling for the Big Day Out to withdraw its invitation. That approach is much more sensible than what looks like a bigoted approach from Chauvel.

Update The Big Day Out has cancelled Beenie Man for all the BDO's in Australasia.

More about →